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marsrock7
(@marsrock7)
Reputable Member

@dev

I agree this stimulus package is a necessary evil. Much will be lost if nothing is done and it will affect small business, middle and lower class the most. That just can't happen. Although it is unfortunate so much money needs to be created out of thin air to do it, it must be done. 

With that said, there is the possibility of too much being done. The freezing of asset and property values is concerning when the money supply is being inflated. Personally, my primary home rose in value over 20% between 2018 and 2019, according to my county. I had half a mind to fight it, but decided the few hundred extra in property taxes was well worth the fact it gave me a document to prove my equity in the home increased by at least the same amount. Equity I am actively trying to put to work now. 

And the pork being added is completely out of line. I believe I read that amongst said pork there was 35million allotted for the John F. Kennedy PAC. Well that's fucking great. Make sure your own personal theatre is solvent, along with all it's employees. What about mine? This was akin to a slap in the face for me. 

@nottamiata

This money will be soaked up? Where? By whom? The 1%? Stock market? At least the latter will mean middle class and above will recover well enough. 

This package is a short term fix. Much of it is necessary, but it will have significant long term effects. If Middle class+ at least see the benefits of an increased money supply through their 401k, great... But what about the rest? Are the lower class still going to be making $7.25/hr? Which is abysmal in its own right, but imagine the dollar having 20% less purchasing power... Then there's those of us who make well above minimum wage but are still lower middle class at best. Say they make $20/hr... Maybe minimum wage is raised to, say, $10/hr. But nothing changes for that guy who was and still is making $20/he, besides his $20 now having the purchasing power of 16 (2019) dollars. Ouch. The only way everybody comes out ok from this level of inflation, is having everybody's balances, both positive and negative, adjusted to the inflated rate, which simply won't happen.

The dollar has been on a significant rise since the markets have begin to tumble in earnest, rising over 8% since 3/9, but ever since this stimulus package has landed on the table, it's been dropping. So far lost ~2% of that gain. This is based on the expectation of a few trillion new dollars coming into existence. It will get much worse once that money actually exists. 

Also, thank you for Captain Combover. Somehow I hadn't heard that one, and I'm keeping it.

On another note, having a significant amount of low interest debt is actually a good position right now. In this case, low interest debt becomes a hedge to inflation. Another reason to refi the house!

ReplyQuote
Posted : March 25, 2020 2:12 am
dev
 dev
(@dev)
Just a member. Moderator
Posted by: @t-bone

@dev I have not heard a single sane person say anything but let’s listen to the scientists and follow the science. Chloroquine is NOT trumps drug it is a treatment that is being explored that trump is hawking like a failed steak endorsement. We are currently on a bad trajectory that will eclipse italy. We are just starting and our er docs are overwhelmed. Overworked under equipped and will nearly all be sick next week.  20% of infected require hospitalization conservative that is 20 million hospital beds and 2 million dead when this burns down.  Not impressed with let’s get back to work by Easter. It will just kill more faster. Drug trials take years and as I have said require power to be credible. 

making a drug legal for off target use with zero data to support its use is a political move to pacify the dullard masses - they are doing something!  They should be building ventilators.

whenyou follow a stupid path to get back on track you have to double back. That kills people    

 

Everything right now is a calculated risk. We do have three initial pilot studies to draw from not just the French one which was tightly controlled, advised by Stanford and backed by the French government.  It might or might not work but one thing we do know is the safety of this drug over the other proposed experimental drugs that are still in clinical trials. What is remarkable about the small trial  is the significance of 100% recovery.  Regardless that ship is already sailed and now we will have data from one of the many proposed trials in the country not just N.Y. if the steep reduction of the viral load reflects the pilot study.  100% recovery is incredibly rare even if sample size is that small so we will know if it’s a hoax or the real deal. If it actually works even for 25% of cases it will still free up healthcare personnel and equipment. That alone is a big deal. A vaccine is gonna take a very long time that it will probably  burn right through and we will all have herd immunity anyways with a great number of death in its wake.

Tomorrow Dr. Oz is going to have a number of patients that were treated with this regiment to give their testimony and I believe testimony from the doctors that are using this drug on the front line.  This is still anecdotal but it shouldn’t be discarded. 

 

ReplyQuote
Posted : March 25, 2020 4:47 am
T-bone
(@t-bone)
Estimable Member

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext

super infection (being infected with something else like a bacteria) may contribute to Covid-19 related deaths

 

Summary

Background

Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described.

Methods

In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death.

Findings

191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p<0·0001), and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL (18·42, 2·64–128·55; p=0·0033) on admission. Median duration of viral shedding was 20·0 days (IQR 17·0–24·0) in survivors, but SARS-CoV-2 was detectable until death in non-survivors. The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days.

Interpretation

The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future.

Funding

Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.
ReplyQuote
Posted : March 25, 2020 6:49 am
T-bone
(@t-bone)
Estimable Member

Here is the scary bit in case you missed it

The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days.”

ReplyQuote
Posted : March 25, 2020 6:51 am
NottaMiata
(@nottamiata)
Honorable Member
Posted by: @marsrock7

...

@nottamiata

This money will be soaked up? Where? By whom? The 1%? Stock market? At least the latter will mean middle class and above will recover well enough. 

This package is a short term fix. Much of it is necessary, but it will have significant long term effects. If Middle class+ at least see the benefits of an increased money supply through their 401k, great... But what about the rest? Are the lower class still going to be making $7.25/hr? Which is abysmal in its own right, but imagine the dollar having 20% less purchasing power... Then there's those of us who make well above minimum wage but are still lower middle class at best. Say they make $20/hr... Maybe minimum wage is raised to, say, $10/hr. But nothing changes for that guy who was and still is making $20/he, besides his $20 now having the purchasing power of 16 (2019) dollars. Ouch. The only way everybody comes out ok from this level of inflation, is having everybody's balances, both positive and negative, adjusted to the inflated rate, which simply won't happen.

The dollar has been on a significant rise since the markets have begin to tumble in earnest, rising over 8% since 3/9, but ever since this stimulus package has landed on the table, it's been dropping. So far lost ~2% of that gain. This is based on the expectation of a few trillion new dollars coming into existence. It will get much worse once that money actually exists. 

Also, thank you for Captain Combover. Somehow I hadn't heard that one, and I'm keeping it.

On another note, having a significant amount of low interest debt is actually a good position right now. In this case, low interest debt becomes a hedge to inflation. Another reason to refi the house!

(Answering some questions, the "you" here is the rhetorical you, not the marsrock)

The money will be soaked up by a combination of price gouging and the eventual destination of Jeff Bezos' bank account.  IPhones will be purchased.  Same old same.

Many here know that I lean toward the "Power to the People, and don't shit where you eat!" side of the spectrum, but this handout is pure Socialism. I am so damn tired of the double standards. Right says handout, Left says aid to dependent children, the terrorist calls himself a Freedom Fighter, all come up with their own phrasing to be able to gag the effing thing down, whatever it is. 

Right now, this is $1,500,000,000,000 in:

"hand out", "free lunch", welfare, socialism, stimulus, emergency situation, another stick of TNT in the DEBT BOMB, etc.  Four years ago it would have been some nauseating not-as-cute-as it-thinks-it-is "Obama [something]".

Everyone is full of shit. If anyone takes this money, THEY SHOULD NOT EVER SAY ANOTHER F**KING THING ABOUT "SOCIALISM IS EVIL", cuz they just took a big bite and said "Yum!". Go ahead, tell yourself it's for a good cause.  But when things get back to normal, just remember, you just participated in a short term UBI.  How's the aftertaste?  I won't mind mine.  It's my money anyway.  I'm just wondering why I let these dimwits "manage" it for me.

Capitalism and Socialism are structures.  Greedy Assholes and Hypocrites are why humanity fails as a whole.  Think about it: if those two things were removed, you could have happy societies with all kinds of econo-political structures.

If we are going to talk about socialism we should include law enforcement, firefighters, roads, and all the other "public services".  Quit pussyfooting around, we have had a mix of Socialism and Capitalism in this country for generations already.  Right now, we are seeing an epic FAIL of Stodgy America's version of JIT, and the true mettle of the incompetent simpleton at the helm.  South Korea just had a wildy successful proof of JIT's power.  The Greedy Frucking American version fell on its face.  Yay, america...

So can we start being honest with ourselves about it now?  Do we have to wait for the first person to come up here and say guess what, guys, today is the first day I had to use my hand to wipe my ass.  THEN can we look in the mirror?  I don't hate America, but it makes me sad to see how selfish and stupid we are.  If you take this money, you are a proven (for the millionth time already, unless you don't use roads for your Spyder?) socialist, so STFU about it.  From there, maybe we should move on just use the best tool for the damn job?  Saying that the best one is always Cap or always Soc is a stupid, bipolar argument.  Anyone here love toll roads?  There's your private road.  BS, should never happen here.  Partisanship in your own world view on political or economic lines is herd thinking, but the wrong kind.

My spending power has been decreasing for years, but my income increases.  Real inflation, you know, in the things we buy like food, gas, utilities, modest entertainment and so forth has felt like 8% for 20 years.  But yeah, I'm still getting great deals on durable goods.  Made in South Korea by robots.  But the equity in my house grows. For now... My overall net worth, while quite modest, has grown.  Essentially, I am converting cash flow into illiquid "wealth".  I think this is probably the general picture with most of middle class america. 401K is pretty illiquid too.  And in a flash, it can be just... gone.  I tried to reorg mine a couple of weeks ago, site had technical difficulties.  But it doesnt matter, we dont have anything in a 401K that is safe anyway.  I'm already only 20% equities since last spring.  but the other part of the mix is going to get clobbered too.  And LOL, what good is a cash fund in an account that is essentially frozen for 30 years?  Great, it preserves value, I get it, but so what?  It is totally unproductive while it does that.  And the shakedown continues...

I made up Captain Combover.  Also, King Combover.  Depends on whether he is being a terrible leader (captain), versus when he is acting and speaking like an autocrat. I don't know why anyone would trust somebody with such a ridiculous combover. Talk about hyperbole, that dude's hair is the most tremendously tremendous hyperbole in the history of hyperbole.

Having a significant amount of low interest debt has been a losing proposition for the last decade.  Why? because I've caught the falling knife twice now, and rates are lower than when I refi'd every time!  That was half-facetious, I catch your drift.  😉  I'm considering it right now, too.  I mean, zero is the bottom, right?  The fees still hurt, though.

 

🐸, 2003, Electric Green Mica, not enough mods

ReplyQuote
Posted : March 25, 2020 7:59 am
marsrock7 liked
Dave
 Dave
(@dave)
Trusted Member

I have no sympathy for corporations not prepared to weather the storm, f'k 'em.  Let the market sort it out. Companies in good shape can figure out how to restructure their debt with available instruments, and if they can't they don't deserve to be in business. I don't care if their business is liquidated for pennies on the dollar, some entity will come along an pick up the pieces and make a go of it if there is value.

Dave

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Posted : March 25, 2020 9:26 am
marsrock7 liked
dev
 dev
(@dev)
Just a member. Moderator
Posted by: @dave

I have no sympathy for corporations not prepared to weather the storm, f'k 'em.  Let the market sort it out. Companies in good shape can figure out how to restructure their debt with available instruments, and if they can't they don't deserve to be in business. I don't care if their business is liquidated for pennies on the dollar, some entity will come along an pick up the pieces and make a go of it if there is value.

I agree but it’s too late. More Socialism is the answer if your moved away from sound principles of money until the entire structure ends up in lines and rationing.   We are no longer a nation of savers, that is the root of the problem and our dependence on more government. Even if you want to be a saver you are only rewarded with very low interest rates because everyone else is living it up including these corporations. 
I think the older generations had it right for saving for a rainy day after the Great Depression and now we squandered it on material goods and lavish lifestyles like the roaring 20s.

As I mentioned before some of the inflation will be hidden with cheap goods.  Hang on to your old coffee machine because it’s going up in value. 

I bought an old use espresso machine circa 1981. At the time of purchase new it was $600. Today used it’s worth over $1500. The company does sell the same model new and the price tag is close to four big ones.  It’s inflation all around including the price of metals.  

ReplyQuote
Posted : March 25, 2020 11:19 am
dev
 dev
(@dev)
Just a member. Moderator
Posted by: @t-bone

Here is the scary bit in case you missed it

The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days.”

Its also scary that the virus can stay on stainless steel for more then 3 days and detectable in aerosolized form for more than 3 hours. I know they didn't initially know enough of about the virus but the so called experts were giving out available information like they know for sure. It is this kind information that caused young people to be reckless and you cant trust CCP because they play joke and they are not giving us valuable information that we need that could help us right now. 

 My initial instincts were telling me that its far more contagious once reported cases came into my state especially since some people can shed the viral load more than others. You just don't know even if you take precautions. I started  disinfecting my packages that I sent out just to be sure and the ones I was receiving  from Amazon or after returning from the supermarket. People thought I was being melodramatic. I guess not.  

 

 

 

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Posted : March 25, 2020 11:53 am
marsrock7 and T-bone liked
dev
 dev
(@dev)
Just a member. Moderator
Posted by: @marsrock7

 

@dev

 

 

 

I agree this stimulus package is a necessary evil. Much will be lost if nothing is done and it will affect small business, middle and lower class the most. That just can't happen. Although it is unfortunate so much money needs to be created out of thin air to do it, it must be done. 

 

 

 

With that said, there is the possibility of too much being done. The freezing of asset and property values is concerning when the money supply is being inflated. Personally, my primary home rose in value over 20% between 2018 and 2019, according to my county. I had half a mind to fight it, but decided the few hundred extra in property taxes was well worth the fact it gave me a document to prove my equity in the home increased by at least the same amount. Equity I am actively trying to put to work now. 

 

 

And the pork being added is completely out of line. I believe I read that amongst said pork there was 35million allotted for the John F. Kennedy PAC. Well that's fucking great. Make sure your own personal theatre is solvent, along with all it's employees. What about mine? This was akin to a slap in the face for me. 

 

 Forget the Jo Biden part of this video as I try to avoid partisan videos where ever possible but I thought the rest of it (printing money part) was pretty much spot on. 

 

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Posted : March 25, 2020 12:03 pm
marsrock7 liked
dev
 dev
(@dev)
Just a member. Moderator

 I find it hilarious that the anti-gunners and people who were on the fence that leaned towards harsh gun control laws  are now trying to buy a guns for the first time. Some counties are shutting the stores down  because there are too many people.

Can anyone guess who is not buying guns. 

 

ReplyQuote
Posted : March 25, 2020 12:32 pm
T-bone
(@t-bone)
Estimable Member

@dev consider this Italy, Spain Florida are all warm and humid. Kind of tropical. If this virus is in fact tropical and does will in the heat by evolutionary design we are in for a painful summer. point of entry is now know to be the same as SARS (ACE receptor interactions) ACE inhibitors could block infection but we won't know that for a few years.

our firearms stores have been closed as they have been deemed non essential. Lots of people mad about that but it is hard to argue with the logic.

 

I am telling everyone worried about or thinking about the economy that this is not what you should be thinking about. Even Liz Cheny gets it. virus first aftermath after. This is one epic bailout that will eclipse the 2008 stimulus by more than a few zeros to the left of the decimal.

20% of all infected need a hospital and we are still seeing exponential increase in infections the math says by next week it will be a total shit show but hey easter is coming and we can all hang out at church cuz that so nice to do.

 

edit I have purchased zero firearms and zero rolls of toilet paper since this has all hit the fan. Guess which one of these items is in fact moving to the shopping list in the next month?

 

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Posted : March 25, 2020 3:18 pm
marsrock7 and dev liked
dev
 dev
(@dev)
Just a member. Moderator
Posted by: @t-bone

@dev consider this Italy, Spain Florida are all warm and humid. Kind of tropical. If this virus is in fact tropical and does will in the heat by evolutionary design we are in for a painful summer. point of entry is now know to be the same as SARS (ACE receptor interactions) ACE inhibitors could block infection but we won't know that for a few years.

our firearms stores have been closed as they have been deemed non essential. Lots of people mad about that but it is hard to argue with the logic.

 

I am telling everyone worried about or thinking about the economy that this is not what you should be thinking about. Even Liz Cheny gets it. virus first aftermath after. This is one epic bailout that will eclipse the 2008 stimulus by more than a few zeros to the left of the decimal.

20% of all infected need a hospital and we are still seeing exponential increase in infections the math says by next week it will be a total shit show but hey easter is coming and we can all hang out at church cuz that so nice to do.

 

edit I have purchased zero firearms and zero rolls of toilet paper since this has all hit the fan. Guess which one of these items is in fact moving to the shopping list in the next month?

 

  Ofcourse.  There are many new things that will be tried simultaneously and many new anecdotal reports of stuff that might work with existing drugs. Hydroxychloroquine is not the only thing on the menu as some are reporting that plasma infusion from recovering  patents has shown to be working anecdotally well.

  I suppose we will know soon how this all pans out. I have plenty of supplies and a crap load of ammunition that I will never really use at least I hope. There is already reports of looting in CA and it makes me wonder if things get worse people will take advantage of the situation and spread it  nationwide. 

 

 

 

  

ReplyQuote
Posted : March 25, 2020 4:58 pm
marsrock7
(@marsrock7)
Reputable Member

@nottamiata

Well said. Got a laugh out of the "eventual destination of Jeff Bezos' bank account" and the Combover Commentary.

Regarding interest rates, zero isn't even the bottom anymore. There are negative rates here and there. Hell, 1 and 3 month treasury bonds touched negative today. In Germany some people actually have negative interest rates on their mortgage. Talk about an inflation hedge!

Specific to the US Mortgage market, the Fed has put down the firehose and opened the floodgates instead. They're buying MBS to the tune of $75 $50billion/day. I don't think we're gonna get much lower for the foreseeable future. I'm probably going to lock my rate within the next week. I've now been offered 3.55% for my scenario on three occasions, seems like that's the bottom line for what I'm aiming for.

Regarding the socialism... You're right. It is. I agree with what Dev said, this is what becomes necessary when monetary policy drifts so far away from sound money, especially coupled with rampant consumerism.

@T-bone

This whole section is terrifying: Median duration of viral shedding was 20·0 days (IQR 17·0–24·0) in survivors, but SARS-CoV-2 was detectable until death in non-survivors. The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days.

Especially combined with what appears to be a preference for tropical climate, and persistence in existence without a host. I fully expect it to be a long summer. 

I have also purchased zero firearms and zero rolls of toilet paper, because I was stocked up on both as I usually am!

@dev

The second half of that video had me rolling!

I had not heard of the influx of firearms sales. Interesting to say the least. I'm still wondering how many lucky ducks out there picked up a hoard of silver bullion at $12/oz. There's still hardly any stock available under spot+25%.

 

Also:

If this hasn't ironically popped on everyone's YouTube feed already.... The man tried to warn us... In great detail.

 

Edit: corrected Fed MBS purchases from 75 to 50 billion per day. Fed is buying treasuries at 75 billion per day.

ReplyQuote
Posted : March 26, 2020 3:09 am
dev
 dev
(@dev)
Just a member. Moderator
Posted by: @marsrock7

@dev

The second half of that video had me rolling!

I had not heard of the influx of firearms sales. Interesting to say the least. I'm still wondering how many lucky ducks out there picked up a hoard of silver bullion at $12/oz. There's still hardly any stock available under spot+25%.

 

Also:

If this hasn't ironically popped on everyone's YouTube feed already.... The man tried to warn us... In great detail.

  Its has been widely reported that they are shutting down these stores because its considered non essential however cannabis dispensaries are open. 

 I am a fan of Colion Noir. In a weird twist of fate both the gun owners and anti gunners agree that first time buyers are stupid because just having a gun without knowing how to use one is not a good idea.  

ReplyQuote
Posted : March 26, 2020 9:25 am
marsrock7 liked
dev
 dev
(@dev)
Just a member. Moderator

There have been a lot of new developments. 

 I urge everyone to wear a mask if you can find one. Preferably a n95 or P100. I was lucky enough to find P100 cartridge for my paint respirator which is what is the CDC recommends for investigators in the field. 

 New information is emerging that there were news outlets were initially saying that masks are not that effective and therefore there was not a big panic over them.  That is simply not true. It is better to have a n95 face mask but right now any  mask is better than no mask. This virus is far more contagious then previously thought or reported as its in the air for a much longer time and new information that has come out today suspects there is  quiet a lot of viral shedding from the eyes.  It is also reported that if everyone wears a mask and glasses the rate of transmission is greatly reduced.  I have a feeling this is the way forward to flatten the curve and it will probably be implemented once things reopen. 

 I urge everyone to wear a mask when you go shopping and a pair of safety goggles if you have them.  

 It is also reported because the virus is so contagious that many people probably have it or had and think they don't have it. There are people testing positive without any symptoms. This is far more insidious then previously thought.  In some ways this is good news because there is a test kit that is being developed similar to a pregnancy test that can self administered so you will know if you have it or had it in minutes. This development could actually get populations of  people to self quarantine and possibly get people back to work knowing they have herd immunity. 

  

 

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Posted : March 26, 2020 9:50 am
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